← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Brave Nation
MEDIUM Advised 2/1 SP 15/8F Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Brave Nation (SR:80, 2/1) carries 9-11 — a 1lb advantage over Merrimack (SR:84) at 9-12 — and crucially benefits from a class drop (↓1), giving connections an easier opportunity. Billy Loughnane's booking is a major signal: at 19% strike rate from 1705 rides he is comfortably the highest-calibre jockey in the field, and the market has steamed in 14% reflecting stable confidence. The GoingFit:~ is the only concern in good-to-firm conditions, but the distance record is workable (DistFit:~) and the form string 307-43 shows a recent third from five runs back with a 4 last time — not flashy, but the class relief here is real. Each-way alternative: Thornaby Pearl. Main danger: Merrimack — Merrimack holds the top SR in the field (84), has course form (W1P1), proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at Newmarket on good-to-firm, and despite a 27% market drift — possibly stable tactics with Loleeta also declared — those hard facts about course-and-distance suitability mean it retains a live winning chance.
Full result
Winner: Brave Nation (IRE) at SP 15/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Brave Nation Fox #1 15/8
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2
Lion's House 4/1
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3
Thornaby Pearl Fox #3 9/2
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4
Merrimack Fox #2 10/3
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5
Loleeta 12/1
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6
Our Planet 11/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3