← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Smiddys Pub Mullingar Handicap Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Zolpharine
MEDIUM Advised 11/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Zolpharine (SR:102, 11/4) arrives on the back of consecutive wins (Form: 505-11) and is the most in-form horse in this small field, having won twice recently off a mark now 14lb higher but still carrying a manageable 10-8. Crucially, GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good ground — the only runner in the field with a positive going rating — while DistFit:? is a question mark shared by almost every runner here, making it a level playing field on trip. As the John Patrick Ryan yard's clear #1 (higher SR, superior recent form, more experienced jockey Daniel King at 9% strike rate versus the claimer on The Little Yank), stable intent appears to be behind this runner. Anodandawink drifted 16% from its opening price despite being sent off favourite, which is a serious market warning sign that undermines its case as the SR-leader. Each-way alternative: Anodandawink. Main danger: Anodandawink — Despite the 16% drift, Anodandawink carries the highest SR in the field (108) and won last time out, meaning raw ability could still overpower the market concerns if connections have a simple explanation for the drift (e.g. a prep run, stable confidence quietly managed).
Full result
Winner: Anodandawink (IRE) at SP 6/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Anodandawink Fox #2 6/5
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2
Kings Jet 18/1
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3
The Little Yank 11/2
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4
Zolpharine Fox #1 3/1
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Mistyburn Fox #3 9/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3