← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Connellan & Noone Solicitors LLP Longford Flat Race
Mr Fox’s call
Appy Ways
MEDIUM Advised 9/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Appy Ways carries the top SR in the field at 155, has the lightest weight at 11-4 (a 7lb advantage over the 12-0 horses and a meaningful edge over the 11-11 trio), and is the only runner showing genuine market confidence — a 21% inward move is a strong steaming signal in a small six-runner field. Jockey Mr J L Gleeson boasts a 17% career strike rate from 141 rides, comfortably the best booking in the race. The form string of dashes suggests this is a first-time runner in bumper/flat conditions, but the combination of highest SR, lightest weight, strong market support, and best jockey engagement makes this an unusually aligned case. All runners show DistFit:? and GoingFit:?, so no horse has a proven distance or going edge, levelling that playing field entirely. Each-way alternative: Mr Enigma. Main danger: Mr Enigma — Mr Enigma holds the second-highest SR at 151, carries the same 11-11 as the other 4-year-olds, is trained by a yard with runners under similar conditions, and has drifted only a modest 6% — far less than every other runner — suggesting the market is not abandoning it the way it is the rest of the field.
Full result
Winner: Confidence Within (IRE) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Confidence Within 12/1
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2
Hot Rock Harry Fox #3 9/2
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3
Mr Enigma Fox #2 3/1
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4
Inishtearaght Fox #4 4/1
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5
Appy Ways Fox #1 6/4
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6
Srah 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Appy Ways 9/4 5TH
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2
Mr Enigma 5/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Hot Rock Harry 9/2 🥈 2ND
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4
Inishtearaght 11/4 🏁 4TH