← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Loros - Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Al Wathba
MEDIUM Advised 2/7 Est. 62%
Mr Fox says
Al Wathba carries an SR of 158 — a full 21 points clear of Ebt's Warrior (SR 137) and 66 points above Jimtrott (SR 92) — which is a commanding ability gap in a three-runner field. Charlie Appleby's 30% strike rate with 198 runners is elite trainer form, and the 2/7 price reflects genuine market confidence even if there has been a 6% drift. The drift is worth noting but in a tiny three-runner field with debut juveniles, market moves are noisy and the SR differential is simply too large to dismiss on a 6% drift alone. The single run form figure of '2' (a second on debut) is a normal stepping-stone for an Appleby two-year-old who will strip fitter here. Each-way alternative: Jimtrott. Main danger: Jimtrott — Jimtrott's consistent placed form (22) and a market that has shortened 8% suggests stable confidence in it running its race, and in a three-runner novice any underperformance from Al Wathba on unfamiliar ground hands it an each-way berth at 7/2.
Full result
Winner: Jimtrott (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Jimtrott Fox #2 7/2
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2
Al Wathba Fox #1 2/7
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3
Ebt's Warrior Fox #3 18/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3