← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Carmel Valley
MEDIUM Advised 7/2 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Carmel Valley (SR:69, 7/2) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and drops two class tiers, a significant relief that gives her the best chance of dominating this Class 6 company. Jason Hart (14% strike rate, 1,290 career runners) is a meaningful booking upgrade for Katie Scott's yard, and Course:W0P2 at Ayr confirms she handles the track. DistFit:~ at 7f50y is the one caveat, but dropping two classes with the field's top SR and an experienced conditional-calibre jockey makes her the most compelling selection. The 7/2 market price is reasonable and reflects genuine confidence without being too short to take. Each-way alternative: Albeyours. Main danger: Novak — Novak (SR:68, 9/2) is only 1lb below Carmel Valley's SR, has steamed in 16% in the market, and Iain Jardine's yard runs at 13% — the market support here is genuine and he's the horse most likely to be peaking fitness-wise off a 14-day break.
Full result
Winner: Catton Lady (GB) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Catton Lady 11/1
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2
Novak Fox #2 6/1
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3
Keep Me Stable 10/1
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4
Yaaser 6/1
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5
Albeyours Fox #3 5/1
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6
Tropez Power 11/1
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7
Carmel Valley Fox #1 4/1
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8
Pal Joey 22/1
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9
Black Rock Beauty Fox #4 9/1
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10
Joshuas Dream 80/1
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11
Kelpie Grey 5/1
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12
Stoneywell 40/1
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Gressington -
Top 4 — how each finished
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4