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Ladbrokes 'Insure Your Acca On Football' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Lord Abama
MEDIUM Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Lord Abama (SR:64, 5/1) is the clear SR leader in this Class 6 sprint by a meaningful margin — 6 points clear of the next-best Velvet Skies and Water Of Leith (both SR:58) — and carries a competitive 9-7. The decisive signal here is the 43% market move in: this is the strongest market confidence in the entire field by some distance, suggesting connections and public money are firmly aligned. The blinkers applied (HG:b) suggest a gear change targeting a specific performance, and at 5/1 with that level of market support, the combination of top SR, weight advantage over the joint top-weights (2lb lighter than #1 and #2), and strong market backing makes this the standout selection. Michael Dods (10% strike rate, 317 runners) is a competent yard and Sean Kirrane has a solid 9% career rate; the Macedonian stablemate at 20/1 (13% market drift in) may be the each-way yard runner but Lord Abama is clearly the yard's number one here given the jockey booking quality and the superior SR. Each-way alternative: Monastere. Main danger: Doon The Glen — Doon The Glen (SR:50, 11/1) has shortened 25% in the market, carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders at 9-3, has course form (W0P1 at Ayr), and Paul Mulrennan (10%, 999 career runners) is a meaningful jockey upgrade — in a wide-open Class 6 sprint, the weight concession and market move make him a live threat.
Full result
Winner: White Umbrella (GB) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
White Umbrella 14/1
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2
Macedonian 12/1
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3
Edmond Halley 7/2
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4
Pivotal Terms 20/1
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5
Doon The Glen Fox #3 7/1
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6
Sixcor 16/1
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7
Henery Hawk 17/2
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8
Head For Freedom 10/1
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9
Lord Abama Fox #1 4/1
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10
Velvet Skies Fox #4 6/1
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11
Ski Angel 28/1
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12
Red Walls 50/1
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13
Baby Rover 12/1
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Water Of Leith -
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Monastere Fox #2 -
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Lanarra -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Lord Abama 5/1 9TH
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2
Monastere 6/1
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3
Doon The Glen 11/1 5TH
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4
Velvet Skies 11/2 10TH