← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
'Ladbrokes Play 1-2-Free' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Napolian
MEDIUM Advised 13/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Napolian (SR 74, 13/2) has steamed in 37% in the market — the most dramatic move in the field — which is a powerful signal in a modest Class 5 handicap where connections rarely fire without cause. His SR of 74 is joint-second best in the field, he carries 9-9 which is manageable, and his GoingFit is confirmed positive on today's good ground. The 13-day turnaround with a yard that has Tudhope booked (16% strike rate, 823 runners) suggests this is a live, intended run. The form string 4-8104 includes a recent '0' which obscures what may be a trip or ground misfire, and his last-time-out 4 at the same class keeps him on a fair mark. Each-way alternative: Light The Night Up. Main danger: Hatamoto — Hatamoto (SR 77, 11/2) is the top-rated horse in the field, drops to 9-0 — the lightest weight of any realistic contender — and showed back-to-back wins (11) recently before a class rise, though his negative GoingFit on good ground is the key concern that keeps him off the top spot.
Full result
Winner: Keep An Eye On It (GB) at SP 3/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Keep An Eye On It Fox #3 10/3
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2
Hatamoto Fox #2 5/1
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3
Vega Storm 9/1
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4
Wise Crack 17/2
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5
Light The Night Up Fox #4 13/2
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6
Paroda Diva 9/2
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7
Napolian Fox #1 7/1
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8
Adiada 14/1
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9
Beckon 25/1
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10
Our Randolph 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Napolian 13/2 7TH
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2
Hatamoto 11/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Keep An Eye On It 4/1 SP 3/1F 🏆 WON
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4
Light The Night Up 8/1 5TH