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Kinrara Gin EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted/Hamilton 2yo Qual) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Profitability
MEDIUM Advised 15/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Profitability carries the highest SR in the field at 150 — comfortably above the next-best Longshanks Luke (SR 139) and well clear of the market leaders Harley (SR 84) and Baldetti (SR 81). Despite a form line of 5-6, the SR signals considerably more ability than those finishing positions suggest, and critically the market has moved sharply in its favour — Mkt:in34% is a substantial steamer that demands respect. The weight advantage is also meaningful: Profitability carries 8-13 against 9-7 for most rivals, a genuine 8lb edge over Baldetti and Harley on the scale. Craig Lidster's booking of William Pyle is modest, but the market move overrides jockey concerns in a small field of six. Each-way alternative: Harley. Main danger: Harley — Harley (SR 84, 11/8) has a confirmed DistFit:+ at today's 6f trip, is steaming in 12% with Daniel Tudhope in the plate — a 16% career strike-rate jockey — and the Edward Bethell yard operates at 15%, making this the most professionally-backed runner despite an SR well below Profitability's.
Full result
Winner: Harley (IRE) at SP 6/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Harley Fox #2 11/8
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2
Sea Mirage 6/1
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3
Profitability Fox #1 9/1
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4
Longshanks Luke Fox #3 10/1
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5
Baldetti 15/8
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6
Lightenings Legacy 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3