← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Oddschecker Fillies' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Sugar Sugar
MEDIUM Advised 6/5 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Sugar Sugar (SR:80, 6/5) is the highest-rated runner in this field by a clear margin and arrives in peak form with a 9321 sequence — her last run a win — at the same class and running off a mark only 2lb higher than that victory. The 27% market steam is the strongest move in the race and confirms professional confidence. She carries 9-7 (same as Seeing Stars and Sweet Desire), so no weight penalty disadvantage relative to nearest rivals, and DistFit:+ confirms she handles the 6f trip. The only caveat is GoingFit:? on good-to-firm, but her SR advantage of 8+ points over the next-best (Thunderous Love at SR:72) is substantial enough to overcome that uncertainty. Each-way alternative: Thunderous Love. Main danger: Thunderous Love — Thunderous Love (SR:72, 3/1) has Course:W2P4 at Nottingham and GoingFit:+ on today's ground — both proven course-and-conditions signals — and her mark has dropped 8lb since her last win (MarkMv:-8), giving her a meaningful handicap edge, though the 20% drift and a form string of 769692 showing only one recent placed finish are reasons to keep her underneath Sugar Sugar.
Full result
Winner: Melissa Honey (GB) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Melissa Honey Fox #3 7/1
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2
Thunderous Love Fox #2 7/4
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3
Come On Eibhlin 13/2
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4
Seeing Stars 7/1
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5
Sugar Sugar Fox #1 9/4
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6
Sweet Desire 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3