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Frazier Jones Wine Merchants Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Regional Rock
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Regional Rock (SR:99, 10/3) is the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin and carries a favourable 9-5, giving him a significant weight advantage over So Darn Hot (10-0) and a meaningful lbs edge on every other runner. His form of 12-23 shows consistent competency at this level — placed in all four runs with a win included — and DistFit:+ confirms he handles this 6f trip comfortably. Ralph Beckett's 17% strike rate is the best among trainers represented here, and Hector Crouch at 17% is a strong booking for the yard. The price of 10/3 implies roughly 23% market probability, yet his SR lead and weight advantage make him a genuine standout in a modest Class 3 field. Each-way alternative: So Darn Hot. Main danger: So Darn Hot — So Darn Hot (SR:92, 7/2) has steamed in 34% in the market — the most significant market move in the race — and a 3lb drop in the handicap mark (MarkMv:-3) combined with Ed Walker's deliberate stablemate split suggests connections view this horse as their live runner, making that market move hard to ignore.
Full result
Winner: Supreme King (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Supreme King Fox #3 4/1
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2
Dandana 12/1
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3
So Darn Hot Fox #2 9/4
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4
Regional Rock Fox #1 9/2
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5
Dr Strangelove 15/2
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6
Golden Brown 6/1
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7
An Outlaw's Grace 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3