← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Champagne Joseph Perrier Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Fox Avatar
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Fox Avatar (SR 92, 5/2) is the clear SR leader in this modest Class 4 field and carries a manageable 9-7, giving him a 3lb weight advantage over top-weight Londoner (SR 87, 9-10). The 20% market shortening is the most significant signal in the race — Varian/Murphy is a powerful booking with a combined career profile (19%/21% strike rates) that dwarfs every other yard-jockey combination declared. Form of 151-67 shows he's capable of winning at a higher level than this, and while DistFit and GoingFit are both unknown, the absence of negative flags (unlike Londoner's GoingFit:-) means uncertainty rather than proven unsuitability. The market is backing him with conviction and the SR advantage is real. Each-way alternative: Carnival Day. Main danger: Londoner — Londoner (SR 87) is the second-best rated horse in the field and the Marquand booking gives him a live chance, though GoingFit:- is a real concern on this Good to Firm surface and a form line of 159542 lacks a recent standout effort.
Full result
Winner: Mythical Bird (IRE) at SP 7/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mythical Bird 9/1
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2
Almekarem Fox #4 11/2
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3
Fox Avatar Fox #1 11/4
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4
Londoner Fox #2 7/2
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5
Carnival Day Fox #3 5/1
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6
Eupator 9/1
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—
Miss Tonnerre 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Fox Avatar 5/2 🥉 3RD
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2
Londoner 4/1 🏁 4TH
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3
Carnival Day 4/1 5TH
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4
Almekarem 13/2 🥈 2ND