← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Racing TV Club Day EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Not My Type
MEDIUM Advised 7/4 SP 6/4 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Not My Type (SR:156, 7/4) is the standout on ability, sitting 4 SR points clear of Empress Princess and a full 21 points ahead of the next best. William Haggas (21% strike rate, 1,062 runners) is one of the most reliable novice trainers in the country, and Tom Marquand at 13% on a large sample is a competent booking. The sole form figure of '1' on debut indicates she already knows how to win, and at 9-9 she is the only runner carrying above the minimum weight, though the 7lb penalty is a standard maiden winner's burden at this level and easily absorbed given the SR advantage. The market at 7/4 is confident without being prohibitively short, implying roughly 36% market probability against our assessed 42% — a slight edge worth taking. Each-way alternative: Empress Princess. Main danger: Empress Princess — Empress Princess (SR:152, 4/1) is an unexposed debutant from James Tate's yard — a trainer with a solid 17% strike rate — and at 7lb less weight than Not My Type she could close the ability gap if she takes to the track on debut.
Full result
Winner: Not My Type (GB) at SP 6/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Not My Type Fox #1 15/8
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2
Empress Princess Fox #2 4/1
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3
Flower Youmzain 20/1
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4
What A Girl Wants Fox #3 6/5
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5
Classyfied 40/1
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6
Queen Of Tears 28/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3