← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Emilies 21st Birthday Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Midnight's Dream
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Midnight's Dream (SR:68, 5/1, Wgt:9-9) is the highest-rated runner in this field by a clear margin and carries a favourable weight — 11lb less than top-weight Lerwick. The market has backed it in sharply by 29%, confirming professional confidence, and GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good ground. Trainer Joseph Parr's 4% strike rate is modest, but Daniel Muscutt is a strong booking at 12% career SR and the market money is the overriding signal here. The DistFit:- is a concern at 7f1y, but the class and rating advantage over this field is decisive in a low-grade Class 6 handicap where the SR ceiling is just 68. Each-way alternative: Split Elevens. Main danger: Oxford Circus — Oxford Circus (SR:61, 4/1) has shortened 42% in the market — the most dramatic move in the field — carrying the lightest weight at 9-2 for a big yard (James Owen, 18% strike rate) with Callum Shepherd booked; the market is clearly on, and light weight can offset the GoingFit:- concern at this level.
Full result
Winner: Split Elevens (GB) at SP 7/2C. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Split Elevens Fox #2 13/2
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2
Spirit Of Breeze Fox #4 9/2
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3
Chelio 7/1
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4
Francisco 18/1
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5
Midnight's Dream Fox #1 13/2
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6
Quick Quasar 18/1
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7
Blue Samuna 28/1
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8
Captive Beauty 8/1
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9
Oxford Circus Fox #3 5/2
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10
Elvetham 10/1
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11
My Dad Tom 28/1
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12
Wind Summer 40/1
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Lerwick -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Midnight's Dream 5/1 5TH
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2
Split Elevens 6/1 SP 7/2C 🏆 WON
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3
Oxford Circus 4/1 9TH
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4
Spirit Of Breeze 13/2 🥈 2ND