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Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Whips To Be Carried, But Not Used) (Part Of Racing Excellence)
Mr Fox’s call
Kimeko Glory
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Kimeko Glory (SR:70, 7/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries 10-1 — top-weight, but the SR gap over the nearest rivals (Sydney Rock SR:73 aside, whose massive 39% drift is a serious red flag) justifies the penalty. The 13% market move in from the morning price tells us informed money is backing this, and Charles Hills at 11% strike rate with a fresh horse (15 days, visor-equivalent hood added) fits the profile of a yard sending one to win. The form string 854504 looks uninspiring but the class level is consistent (ClassMv:=) and GoingFit:~ on today's good-to-firm is workable. The weight is a concern at 10-1 but at a 7-runner Class 5, it is not prohibitive. Each-way alternative: Decalogue. Main danger: Decalogue — Decalogue (SR:71, 11/4) is second-highest rated, carries a favourable 9-8 versus Kimeko Glory's 10-1, and Jamie Osborne's yard runs at 12% — the tight price suggests market respect, and despite DistFit:- the 3lb weight concession from the favourite could tip a close finish.
Full result
Winner: Thiscouldbefun (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Thiscouldbefun 8/1
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2
Sydney Rock 3/1
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3
Kimeko Glory Fox #1 2/1
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4
Zipwire Fox #3 20/1
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5
Amathus 10/1
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6
Ebn Sabt 100/1
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—
Decalogue Fox #2 9/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Kimeko Glory 7/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Decalogue 11/4
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3
Zipwire 12/1 🏁 4TH