← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Bar 1 Betting Rated Novice Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Luker's Tipple
HIGH Advised 2/1 SP 13/8F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Luker's Tipple (SR:167, 2/1) is the standout on every meaningful signal. The SR of 167 — top-class on the 0-200 scale — is a full 14 points clear of the next-best Killeemore Lad (SR:153) and dwarfs the rest of the field. The form string 2-3411 shows back-to-back wins leading into today, confirming peak condition, and this is a 5-year-old with youth and progression on its side. Gavin Cromwell's yard has sent it out just 7 days ago in winning form, and crucially the market has tightened 9% — the money is coming for this horse, not leaving it. GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good ground, and while DistFit is only moderate (~), there is no red-flag evidence of a distance problem — merely an insufficient win rate to trigger the + flag. Each-way alternative: Killeemore Lad. Main danger: Killeemore Lad — Killeemore Lad (SR:153, 15/8) is the second-highest-rated horse, ridden by the experienced Darragh O'Keeffe, and despite drifting 16% the five-star AI probability rating and recent form of 822/F2 — which includes a fall rather than a beaten run — means ability is not in question if jumping holds up.
Full result
Winner: Luker's Tipple (IRE) at SP 13/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Luker's Tipple Fox #1 7/4
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2
Killeemore Lad Fox #2 9/4
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3
Missus Beeton 14/1
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4
Cappa Hill Fox #3 14/1
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5
Tell Us This 7/2
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6
Playtime 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3