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Chapel Down Apprentice Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Raintown
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Raintown (SR 81, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in this modest Class 5 field and brings by far the strongest combination of signals: a Course:W2P4 record at Newbury is exceptional for this level, DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm today's trip and good-to-firm conditions suit perfectly, and a Mkt:in16% move from what was already a competitive price tells us informed money is backing this up. The form string 834231 shows a horse that ran second last time out and is on a consistent upward trajectory, running off a mark only 3lb above its last win — a manageable penalty. Jockey Kyle McHugh (apprentice claim retained) keeps the weight relevant, and at 11/4 the price is fair rather than prohibitive given the dominance of the course profile alone. Each-way alternative: We Ride At Dawn. Main danger: We Ride At Dawn — We Ride At Dawn (SR 60, evens favourite) has steamed 22% in the market — the biggest move in the field — carries just 9-7, and a recent form line of 5-0241 shows a winner last time out, suggesting a horse on a sharp upward curve that the market is clearly treating as the most progressive runner in the race.
Full result
Winner: We Ride At Dawn (GB) at SP 10/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
We Ride At Dawn Fox #2 evn
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2
Raintown Fox #1 11/4
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3
Grey Fox Fox #3 7/2
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4
Living In Hope 12/1
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Decalogue -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3