← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Zyn Strong Stride EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Gilding The Lily
SPECULATIVE Advised 8/15 SP 2/5F Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Gilding The Lily carries the highest SR in the field at 159 — a clear edge over Date Line (SR 157) and Evening Call (SR 151) — and is trained by John & Thady Gosden whose 24% strike rate is the best in this field. Running off just 14 days' rest with a recent run under her belt (form: 2), she has race fitness that Date Line (420 days off) and the unraced Evening Call cannot match. The 8/15 market price reflects strong confidence from connections despite a 5% drift, which is explicable given the small field and no outstanding danger. At this distance and going, Gosden's yard regularly produces well-tuned debutante/lightly-raced fillies on Newmarket's July course, and Havlin's 14% strike rate is solid backing. Each-way alternative: Date Line. Main danger: Date Line — Date Line holds the second-highest SR at 157, has a proven course record (W1P1 at Newmarket July), and Charlie Johnston's 13% strike rate with a returning horse suggests she could strip fitter than her 420-day absence implies.
Full result
Winner: Gilding The Lily (GB) at SP 2/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Gilding The Lily Fox #1 8/13
-
2
Date Line Fox #2 5/2
-
3
Evening Call Fox #3 6/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3