← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Maritime Cargo Sts Freight Frenzy Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
The Sweet Escape
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/4 SP 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
The Sweet Escape (SR 86, 6/4) is comfortably the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin — 7 points ahead of Rising Force and 16+ clear of the rest — and carries only 9-5, a significant weight advantage over the top-weight Rising Force (9-9). The form string 446112 shows a genuine progressive profile, winning twice in the last three starts, and GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good-to-firm ground well. The 7% drift from opening is the one flag, but given Laura Pearson's moderate 7% strike rate is offset by Loughnane's stable form, the drift is more likely market noise than informed opposition. The DistFit:- over 1m is a real concern, but no rival presents a compelling alternative case strong enough to override the SR dominance and proven course-condition affinity. Each-way alternative: Sir Edward Lear. Main danger: Rising Force — Rising Force (SR 79, 9/4) holds a course place on record, is trained by John Butler at a 15% strike rate with Marco Ghiani aboard, and though the 12% market drift is a concern, the proximity in class and weight carried (9-9 vs 9-5) means if The Sweet Escape fails to see out the mile, Rising Force's more proven stamina profile could get up.
Full result
Winner: The Sweet Escape (GB) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
The Sweet Escape Fox #1 2/1
-
2
Currumbin 33/1
-
3
Calyxoh 11/1
-
4
Mr Ubiquitous 10/1
-
5
Sir Edward Lear Fox #3 11/2
-
6
Rising Force Fox #2 6/4
-
7
Special Ghaiyyath 28/1
-
8
Triggerman 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
The Sweet Escape 6/4 SP 11/4 🏆 WON
-
2
Rising Force 9/4 6TH
-
3
Sir Edward Lear 7/1 5TH