← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Give Thanks Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Bosphorus Rose
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Bosphorus Rose (SR 105, 5/2) is the only runner in the field with confirmed DistFit:+ AND GoingFit:+ for today's 1m4f on good ground, giving her a substantial empirical edge over rivals who are either unproven at the trip or poor on the going. Her recent form of 630-31 shows a last-time-out win, she runs at ClassMv:= meaning no step up in class, and trainer P Twomey (24% career strike rate, 232 runners) is one of Ireland's most efficient operators. While the market has drifted 6% (Mkt:out6%), this is a modest drift compared to the 10-60% moves against the clear outsiders, and at 5/2 the price is still market-leading for good reason. The slight drift may reflect the absence of Ryan Moore or DBM in the saddle, but W J Lee (15%, 764 runners) is a capable booking and the course-and-distance fitness profile is the decisive factor in a field where most rivals carry DistFit:? or GoingFit:?. Each-way alternative: Caught U Sleeping. Main danger: Nyra — Nyra (SR 109, 7/2) has steamed in 18% in the market — the strongest move in the field — with DBM booked and Joseph Patrick O'Brien's clear stable number-one signal, and though DistFit and GoingFit are unproven, that level of market confidence suggests connections believe the step to 1m4f on good ground suits her.
Full result
Winner: Believed (IRE) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Believed 7/2
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2
Amelia Earhart Fox #4 4/1
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3
Caught U Sleeping Fox #2 6/1
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4
Snapretend 33/1
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5
Bosphorus Rose Fox #1 11/4
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6
Cameo 14/1
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7
Ankara 40/1
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8
Ice Dancer 66/1
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Nyra Fox #3 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3
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4