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Mr Fox’s call
Riley Rocks
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Riley Rocks (SR 73, 3/1) combines the most convincing alignment of signals in this field: proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at today's trip and going bucket, dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) off a mark already trimmed 3lb (MarkMv:-3), and the market has shortened 7% since opening — not a dramatic move but steady money for a horse that showed two wins in its recent form string ('116040', meaning back-to-back wins two runs ago). Trainer Dylan Cunha at 10% and Stevie Donohoe at 11% are modest but not irrelevant, and weight at 9-7 is fair for an SR of 73. The key edge over market leader Logi Bear is that Logi Bear is actively opposed on distance (DistFit:-) and going (GoingFit:-) and has drifted 24% in the market — a damning combination. Riley Rocks is the only shortlisted horse with confirmed distance and going fitness alongside a class drop and market support. Each-way alternative: Kimbara. Main danger: Kimbara — Kimbara carries the highest SR in the field at 78, drops a class, has market support (in 8%), and trainer Richard Spencer at 16% and Jack Callan at 14% are the strongest connections strike-rate pairing on the card — if the unknown GoingFit:? resolves positively on this all-weather surface, it is fully capable of winning.
Full result
Winner: Logi Bear (IRE) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Logi Bear Fox #4 7/2
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2
Far Too Fizzy 17/2
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3
Kimbara Fox #2 9/4
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4
Riley Rocks Fox #1 4/1
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5
Hierarchy Fox #3 5/1
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6
Sir Alfie 22/1
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7
Punchbowl Flyer 22/1
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8
Perdy In Paris 16/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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