← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
TPT Fire Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Great Acclaim
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Great Acclaim (SR 103, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin and has steamed in 15% in the market — the same magnitude of market move as Witch Hunter but from a far more credible SR base. Carrying 10-2 is a concern, but the weight edge over Scoville (9-11, SR 99) is modest and Great Acclaim's SR advantage over the rest of the field is meaningful. Course form of W1P1 at Newbury confirms it acts here, and while GoingFit is only moderate (~ not +), good-to-firm is not a ground it has demonstrably failed on. The MarkMv:+7 is a negative signal — running off a mark 7lb above its last win — but the 15% market support suggests connections believe the horse is operating at a level that justifies the higher mark. Each-way alternative: Scoville. Main danger: Scoville — Scoville (SR 99, 9/4) carries a favourable 9-11, has a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good-to-firm surface, is trained by William Haggas (21% strike rate) with Tom Marquand aboard, and represents the market's preferred option — if it has simply needed the run after a 15-day break, its ceiling is close to Great Acclaim's.
Full result
Winner: Addison Grey (GB) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Addison Grey 6/1
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2
Havana Pusey 20/1
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3
Scoville Fox #2 15/8
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4
Christian David 8/1
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5
Stellar Sunrise Fox #3 17/2
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6
Witch Hunter 11/1
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7
Great Acclaim Fox #1 4/1
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8
Humam Fox #4 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Great Acclaim 7/2 7TH
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2
Scoville 9/4 🥉 3RD
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3
Stellar Sunrise 17/2 5TH
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4
Humam 15/2 8TH