← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Darley EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Mosheer
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Mosheer (SR:154, 5/2) heads the SR rankings and is backed into favouritism at 5/2 by trainer Owen Burrows (18% strike rate) and jockey Callum Rodriguez (17% strike rate) — one of the strongest connections combinations in the field. As a debut runner, the market has clearly done its homework on home gallops, and the 5/2 price in a 13-runner novice for a first-time-out horse represents genuine confidence from those closest to the horse. The SR of 154 sits 1lb clear of Gambling Man and Mister Whippy on that measure, and Burrows' 18% yard strike rate is the joint-best in the field alongside Ralph Beckett, with Rodriguez also at 17%. The absence of a form line is shared by most rivals and does not dilute the case when the market, SR, and connections all point the same direction. Each-way alternative: Gambling Man. Main danger: Gambling Man — Gambling Man (SR:153, 6/1) has steamed in 43% in the market — the biggest positive move in the field — and Amanda Perrett's yard, while a modest 6% overall strike rate, has clearly flagged this horse with that dramatic market move; a single run fourth suggests a horse learning its trade that connections believe is ready to convert.
Full result
Winner: Gambling Man (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Gambling Man Fox #2 11/2
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2
Mister Whippy Fox #3 10/3
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3
Silent Force Fox #4 15/2
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4
San Jose 8/1
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5
Saint Mungo 9/1
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6
Another Encore 20/1
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7
Mosheer Fox #1 5/2
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8
Lots Road 14/1
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9
Mr Montgomery 50/1
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10
Diamondise 80/1
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11
Gallego 40/1
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12
Maktoo 40/1
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13
Red Tail 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4