← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Swings & Smiles Supported By Ap&c Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Masterinthewoods
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Masterinthewoods (SR 99, 2/1) is the class leader by a clear margin — 6lb above Great Bedwyn and 11lb above Explode on the SR scale — and carries a favourable 9-9, the second-lightest weight in the field, giving it a real lbs advantage over the heavier-weighted runners. The form string 3-7122 shows two consecutive wins before a second last time out, confirming peak condition, and the DistFit:+ flag is the only confirmed distance suitability in this field over 1m4f. The market has shortened 24% from opening, the strongest move in the race by some distance, suggesting informed confidence. Running off a mark 8lb above last win is the one caution, but the SR lead and proven trip combine to make this a clear selection. Each-way alternative: Tryfan. Main danger: Tryfan — Tryfan (SR 88, 7/2) drops two class tiers and showed a last-time-out win (form ending in '1'), and while the MarkMv:+7 and market drift of 21% are concerns, Harry Charlton at 17% strike rate with Callum Rodriguez is a capable combination that could exploit the class drop if Masterinthewoods is held up by its higher mark.
Full result
Winner: Explode (FR) at SP 6/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Explode Fox #3 9/2
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2
Masterinthewoods Fox #1 15/8
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3
Great Bedwyn 10/3
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4
Pinatique 17/2
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5
Tryfan Fox #2 7/2
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Nicator -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Masterinthewoods 2/1 🥈 2ND
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2
Tryfan 7/2 5TH
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3
Explode 6/1 SP 6/1 🏆 WON