← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Betway Bet The Responsible Way Fillies' Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Eabha
SPECULATIVE Advised evn Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Eabha (SR 73, evens) carries 9-9 but brings the most compelling multi-signal case: a confirmed course-and-distance specialist (W1P1 at Newmarket July, DistFit:+, GoingFit:+), a sharp recent form line of 3-3-1-1 showing genuine progression, and a 16% market steam that reflects informed confidence. Billy Loughnane (19% career strike rate, 1733 runners) is the strongest jockey booking in the race, and Eve Johnson Houghton's 11% strike rate is respectable for this level. The class rise of one tier (ClassMv:↑1) and a 5lb higher mark are the only concerns, but the course-and-going double confirmation and trajectory of form outweigh those risks. Fire Thunder (SR 82) is nominally the highest-rated horse but has drifted 36% out of the market, a meaningful signal against it in a small field. Each-way alternative: Princess Ivy. Main danger: Princess Ivy — Princess Ivy (SR 77, 7/2) carries the joint-lightest weight at 8-6, has shortened 6% in the market, and her form line of 9-4-2 shows consistent improvement that could peak on this step up two class tiers if the unknown going and distance suits.
Full result
Winner: Kodi Bear Light (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Kodi Bear Light 10/1
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2
Fire Thunder Fox #3 5/1
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3
Eabha Fox #1 5/6
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4
Cash Cove 12/1
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5
Princess Ivy Fox #2 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3