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Mr Fox’s call
Cherry Cobbler
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 SP 2/1F Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Cherry Cobbler (SR 84, 5/2) leads the SR rankings alongside Norcross Brow (SR 85) but carries the same 10-2 to Norcross Brow's 9-12 — a meaningful 4lb weight disadvantage partially offset by dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) and a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good to firm ground. The 16% market steam is the key differentiator: this is informed money arriving late, and combined with Stuart Williams operating at 14% strike rate on a reasonable yard volume, connections clearly expect a big run. The DistFit:- flag is a concern, but the form string 017222 shows consistent placing in recent runs and the class drop should compensate for the trip quirk. Norcross Brow's dramatic 33% market drift — from a horse with form 831211 and the field's joint-highest SR — is the decisive counter-signal that tips the decision toward Cherry Cobbler. Each-way alternative: Mister Mojito. Main danger: Norcross Brow — Norcross Brow carries the field's highest SR (85), has an in-form recent sequence of 831211, and both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed — the 33% drift is the only material negative and market drifts on horses with a 23%-strike-rate trainer are not always reliable signals against strongly progressive form.
Full result
Winner: Cherry Cobbler (GB) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Cherry Cobbler Fox #1 11/4
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2
Norcross Brow Fox #2 11/4
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3
Mister Mojito Fox #3 2/1
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4
Jersey Maverick Fox #4 5/1
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5
Aspull 50/1
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6
Electrical 22/1
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Bucklow Hill -
Top 4 — how each finished
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