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QuinnBet Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Ras Kassar
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Ras Kassar (SR:120, 5/2) is the most compelling selection despite a lower SR than Tamarind Bay, due to three converging signals. The 15% market steam from opening is the strongest market move in the field and commands attention — money on a 5/2 shot in a five-runner handicap is meaningful. The weight advantage is real: 10-7 versus Tamarind Bay's 11-10, a 17lb difference that more than compensates for the 14-point SR gap when translated to actual race conditions over a testing 2m4f. Tamarind Bay (SR:134) carries a hefty 11-10 as top-weight and is running off a mark 5lb higher than his last win with a 6% market drift — the layers are pushing money out on the favourite, while it flows into Ras Kassar. The step up in class (↑1) is a concern, but David Pipe's yard has the nous to place horses accurately, and the recent 20-day turnaround suggests the team are happy with him. Each-way alternative: Tamarind Bay. Main danger: Tamarind Bay — Tamarind Bay (SR:134) holds the clear class edge in this field, has confirmed DistFit and GoingFit on today's conditions, and Sean Bowen's 23% strike rate on 1,208 rides is the most potent jockey booking in the race — if the weight burden of 11-10 doesn't blunt his finishing effort, he wins.
Full result
Winner: Glen To Glen (IRE) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Glen To Glen 7/1
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2
Ras Kassar Fox #1 9/4
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3
Follow Your Luck Fox #3 3/1
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4
Kinbara Firstdraft 40/1
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Tamarind Bay Fox #2 13/8
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3