← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Brooks Macdonald Handicap Steeple Chase
Mr Fox’s call
Shantou Show
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Shantou Show (SR 93, 10/3) is the standout market mover in this small field, steaming in 52% since opening — the most significant market signal in the race by a wide margin. Sean Bowen's booking (23% career strike rate, 1,208 rides) is a clear upgrade on most of the opposition's jockeys, and at 12-0 he carries top weight but that burden is offset by the class parity (ClassMv:=) and Bowen's ability to manage pace over 2m7f. The DistFit:~ is acceptable in a field where most rivals show DistFit:? at this trip, and while GoingFit:- is a genuine concern on good ground, the 52% market move suggests connections are confident it will not be the limiting factor today. Form reads 5P-73P which looks modest, but the tp headgear and dramatic market support point to a stable that believes this horse is poised to run to a much higher level. Each-way alternative: Edgewell. Main danger: Edgewell — Edgewell (SR 93, 9/2) arrives dropping a class with GoingFit:+ confirmed — the only runner proven to handle today's good ground — and recent form -3P311 shows a horse coming into form sharply, with trainer Nick Scholfield (17% strike rate) and jockey Harry Reed (21%) both punching well above their weight in small-field chases.
Full result
Winner: Button Rock (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Button Rock 4/1
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2
Mcgregors Charge Fox #3 10/3
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3
Collingham 5/1
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4
Le Malin 11/2
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5
Shantou Show Fox #1 4/1
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6
Edgewell Fox #2 5/1
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7
Ballydangan 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3