← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Racing For Tamara Ripon Hornblower EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Rogue Jewel
HIGH Advised 4/7 SP 5/6F Est. 62%
Mr Fox says
Rogue Jewel (SR 161, 4/7) is the standout on pure ability — rated 8 points clear of the next-best Does Mary Know (SR 153) and 36 points ahead of the remaining pair. A last-time-out winner stepping up just one class (ClassMv:↑1) is the safest profile in a novice stakes, and connections are elite: Edward Bethell at 15% strike rate paired with Daniel Tudhope at 16% is among the most lethal booking combinations in Northern racing. The light 9-6 weight — 1lb fewer than rivals — is a minor bonus in a tight five-runner field. The short price is fully justified by the SR dominance and connections quality; there is no credible market drift to concern us. Each-way alternative: Does Mary Know. Main danger: Does Mary Know — Does Mary Know (SR 153, 5/2) is the only runner within striking distance on the SR scale, holds its class from last time (ClassMv:=), and Eve Johnson Houghton's stable is capable of placing well-prepared juveniles — if Rogue Jewel encounters any trouble in running in this small field, Does Mary Know is the one to capitalise.
Full result
Winner: Rogue Jewel (IRE) at SP 5/6F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Rogue Jewel Fox #1 4/6
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2
Does Mary Know Fox #2 5/2
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3
Green Bay Dream Fox #3 5/1
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4
Classy Jaguar 150/1
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5
Taj Mahal Palace 28/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3