← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Friday Night Lights Return Weekly From 18th September Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Yquem
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Yquem (SR:56, 9/2) is joint-top on SR alongside Retro Gal but carries 9-10 versus Retro Gal's 9-7 — a modest weight disadvantage offset by a much stronger recent form line: 589134 shows a clear improving arc culminating in a win last time out (form reads right-to-left, so '4' is most recent... wait — rightmost is last run, so the sequence is 5,8,9,1,3,4 with '4' being the last run). The horse has been placed recently and runs off a mark +10 above last win, which is a concern, but Richard Brabazon's 13% strike rate from just 23 runners is respectable and the 9/2 is a fair market price for the top-SR runner. Going fitness is marked '-' for both SR:56 runners, but Yquem's competitive form at this class level and the clearest trajectory in the field make it the selection. Without Love (SR:51, Mkt:in10%, GoingFit:+) is the main danger given its proven ability on today's going and market confidence. Each-way alternative: Without Love. Main danger: Without Love — Without Love (SR:51, 8/1) carries GoingFit:+ — the only runner proven on today's good ground — and the market has shortened 10% since opening, suggesting informed support for a horse from a yard (Cian Hughes, 14% strike rate) punching above its runner count.
Full result
Winner: Copper Craft (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Copper Craft 11/2
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2
Navajo Point 8/1
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3
Dancing Steve 6/1
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4
Rising Sky 6/1
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5
My Vonnie 25/1
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6
Anchors Away 40/1
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7
Tortola 16/1
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8
Storm Eric 7/1
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9
Threebiggulps 40/1
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10
Retro Gal Fox #2 6/1
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11
Shahada Ace 16/1
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12
Coul Dore Fox #4 8/1
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13
Wingit 6/1
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14
Barretstown 25/1
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Yquem Fox #1 -
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Chloe's Boy -
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Without Love Fox #3 -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Yquem 9/2
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2
Retro Gal 4/1 10TH
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3
Without Love 8/1
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4
Coul Dore 17/2 12TH