← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Brennan's Pharmacy Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Spasiba
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 SP 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Spasiba (SR:86, 11/4) posts the second-highest SR in the field and carries a fair 9-11, giving it a clear 10lb weight advantage over top-weight Delta (SR:90, 10-7) — a meaningful concession in a 2m handicap on good ground. Crucially, the market has shortened 12% since opening, indicating informed support for a Willie Mullins-trained runner (21% career strike rate, the strongest yard in the field) ridden by Ben Coen (12% strike rate). The form string 69379/ reads as workmanlike but the Mullins operation rarely runs a horse at 11/4 without genuine expectation, and the weight-SR combination tilts the value equation clearly in Spasiba's favour over the favourite Delta, which has drifted 13% from its opening price — a significant negative signal. Each-way alternative: Way Down South. Main danger: Delta — Delta holds the highest SR in the field (90) and is trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien (16% strike rate) — if the market drift of 13% is explained by a fitness query rather than form concerns, it retains a class edge that could assert itself over 2m.
Full result
Winner: Spasiba (FR) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Spasiba Fox #1 11/4
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2
Miss Gitana 15/2
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3
Zoffman 15/2
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4
Delta Fox #2 11/4
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5
Way Down South Fox #3 16/1
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6
Plontier 11/1
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7
Clear Quartz 16/1
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8
Filey Bay 9/2
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Dream On Baby -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Spasiba 11/4 SP 3/1 🏆 WON
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2
Delta 5/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Way Down South 17/2 5TH