← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
LNAA Critical Care Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Palladas
HIGH Advised 1/3 SP 2/11F Est. 55%
Mr Fox says
Palladas (SR 158, 1/3) is a dominant selection by every available metric. The SR of 158 is a full 7 points clear of the next-best Assiri Heights (SR 151) and dwarfs the remainder of the field, most of whom sit in the 123-139 range. Charlie Appleby's 31% strike rate with 206 runners is elite-level, and Billy Loughnane at 19% from 1,740 rides provides high-quality steering. A debut winner who has clearly impressed connections enough to be sent to Southwell at heavy odds-on, the weight of 9-11 carries no penalty concerns in a novice context where rivals include 100/1 and 125/1 shots. The market's extreme confidence (1/3) reflects a Godolphin operation that simply does not send SR 158 horses to Class 4 Southwell novices unless they expect to win comfortably. Each-way alternative: Assiri Heights. Main danger: Salvezza — Salvezza (SR 147, 9/1) has steamed in 17% in the market — the strongest market move in the field outside the favourite — and Ed Walker's 15% strike rate with Kieran Shoemark aboard gives this horse the second-best connections profile on the card; stepping up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is a concern, but the market support suggests something has been seen at home.
Full result
Winner: Palladas (GB) at SP 2/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Palladas Fox #1 2/7
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2
Mercantile 28/1
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3
Star of The Desert Fox #4 14/1
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4
Salvezza Fox #3 11/1
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5
Blue Boy Junior 20/1
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6
Assiri Heights Fox #2 11/2
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7
Wyvill 150/1
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8
Cullinan Wolf 100/1
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9
Jetpack Jimmy 125/1
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10
Wats On Tiger 125/1
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Regal Desire -
Top 4 — how each finished
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4