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IFAHR Cup Handicap Stakes (0-95) - Arab Race
Mr Fox’s call
Mdawi (A)
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 100/30 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Mdawi (SR:159) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a favourable weight of 9-2 — a full 12lb less than stablemate Ashj'Aa (10-0) despite superior ability. His form string 272-11 shows two consecutive wins in most recent outings, confirming peak condition, and the market has responded with a 5% inward move to 7/2. Jockey Ray Dawson (16% strike rate from 426 rides) is meaningfully stronger in the saddle than any other booking here. The Collington yard running two horses raises the stablemate question, but Mdawi's SR edge, weight advantage, and better recent form make him the clear yard number one. Each-way alternative: Ashj'Aa (A). Main danger: Ashj'Aa (A) — Ashj'Aa (SR:149) is a 4-year-old whose sole form figure is a win, carries market support (6% inward move to 11/10), and the youth and upside of a once-raced improver in the same yard could make him more progressive than his SR currently reflects.
Full result
Winner: Mdawi (A) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mdawi (A) Fox #1 SP 100/30
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2
Jeewan (A) Fox #3 4/1
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3
Ashj'Aa (A) Fox #2 5/6
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4
Mayfair (A) 11/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3