Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap

15:55 Curragh Sun 16 Aug 2026 1m2f0y Good 12 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Thyer

SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 28%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Thyer (SR:78, 3/1, 9-10) is the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin and carries a manageable weight. The standout signal is the 23% market inward move — the sharpest steam in the race — from a 3/1 starting point, indicating strong informed money despite a trainer (Ahern, 8%) and jockey (Roche, 6%) who are not headline operators. The form string 00-653 is uninspiring on paper but the visor application is new and the significant market support suggests connections expect it to unlock improvement. GoingFit:- is the key risk on good ground, but the market has clearly taken that into account and still backed it aggressively. Each-way alternative: Nibras Rainbow. Main danger: Nibras Rainbow — Nibras Rainbow (SR:64, 12/1, 8-7) has the sole DistFit:+ in the field, ran only 4 days ago showing peak readiness, has shortened 9% in the market, and the lightest weight in the field at 8-7 gives a significant physical edge in a 12-runner handicap.

Verify· #12727

Full result

Winner: Liberation Date (GB) at SP 7/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Liberation Date Jack Foley · Orla Tynan(7) 9/1
2 Thyer Fox #1 Maurice Andrew Ahern · Leigh Roche 10/3
3 Nibras Rainbow Fox #2 Paul W Flynn · Chris Hayes 10/1
4 Admiral Will Brown Patrick Magee · Wesley Joyce(3) 15/2
5 Sonoran G M Lyons · Gary Carroll 14/1
5 Youcansaythatagain Fox #4 A Oliver · Ben Coen 6/1
5 Great Mover W McCreery · Dylan Browne McMonagle 8/1
8 Blackjack Hills Matthew J Smith · Robbie Colgan 7/1
9 Unterberg Laura Hourigan · Oisin Murphy 20/1
10 Guinelot Fox #3 K J Condon · Shane Foley 15/2
11 Storzando Michael Mulvany · Declan McDonogh 28/1
12 Mighty Danu Gavin Cromwell · Jack Kearney(3) 28/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Thyer 3/1 🥈 2ND
2 Nibras Rainbow 12/1 🥉 3RD
3 Guinelot 13/2 10TH
4 Youcansaythatagain 6/1 5TH