← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Well-Earned Retirement Neal Kidd Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Harry's Pop
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 2/1F Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Harry's Pop (SR:64, 9/2) carries 9-9 — a 14lb pull on So Tempting (SR:66, 8-11) when adjusted for weight, effectively neutralising So Tempting's marginal SR edge. Sam James (14% career strike rate) is the sharper jockey booking in this field and the class drop (↓1) into a Class 6 nursery is well-timed. The DistFit:- flag is a concern shared across most of this field, so it is not a differentiator, and 9/2 represents fair value in a competitive but low-grade heat where no runner stands clearly apart. The form figure of 44 in recent runs is modest but not dishonourable at this level. Each-way alternative: Aura Of Melania. Main danger: Eevee Star — Eevee Star (SR:56, 10/1) has steamed in 11% in the market — the only runner shortening — and Edward Bethell's 16% trainer strike rate is the best in the field, suggesting stable confidence is genuine.
Full result
Winner: Harry's Pop (GB) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Harry's Pop Fox #1 3/1
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2
Aura Of Melania Fox #2 4/1
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3
Cheeky Chesca 11/1
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4
Soldier's Echo Fox #4 7/1
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5
So Tempting 3/1
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6
Athos 10/1
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7
Eevee Star Fox #3 10/1
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8
Invicta Rose 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Harry's Pop 9/2 SP 2/1F 🏆 WON
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2
Aura Of Melania 4/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Eevee Star 10/1 7TH
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4
Soldier's Echo 6/1 🏁 4TH