← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Download The At The Races App EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Saifo
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Saifo (SR:151, 15/8) is dropping two class tiers with a 10% market steam — the money is clearly on this horse for a reason. Partnered by Silvestre De Sousa (13% career strike rate, 870 runners — a vastly more experienced booking than the field average), and Simcock is a trainer who places horses shrewdly. The class drop from wherever Saifo has been running means this field, topped by a SR-153 favourite that has drifted 8% and carries identical weight at 9-7, should be well within reach. Franschhoek (SR:153) is the only horse with a higher SR but the 8% drift on the favourite at a tight price is a meaningful negative signal in a small six-runner maiden. Each-way alternative: Franschhoek. Main danger: Franschhoek — Franschhoek holds the field's highest SR at 153 and carries the same weight as Saifo at 9-7, so if the 8% drift is simply noise rather than a genuine negative signal, Fanshawe's runner has the raw ability to reverse market expectations.
Full result
Winner: Franschhoek (GB) at SP 8/15F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Franschhoek Fox #2 8/13
-
2
Saifo Fox #1 2/1
-
3
Astrid 25/1
-
4
Why Not Me Fox #3 8/1
-
5
State Express 50/1
-
6
Sueshine 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3