← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Javelot
MEDIUM Advised 11/10 SP 1/1F Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Javelot (SR:154, 11/10) is the standout on rating — a 3-point SR gap over the next best (Peaberry SR:151) that is meaningful in a Class 4 novice field. The 15% market shortening signals strong stable confidence, Marco Botti runs at a 15% career strike rate with Silvestre De Sousa booked — a top-end pilot for this level. Dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) from what was presumably a stronger novice test is a significant advantage, and the 11/10 price with that degree of market support represents genuine confidence rather than just public favouritism. The only caveat is a single run showing a fourth, but in a novice of this quality that form figure is entirely consistent with the SR and the class drop makes a forward move very likely. Each-way alternative: Peaberry. Main danger: Peaberry — Peaberry (SR:151, 11/4) is the second-highest rated horse in the field, also drops two class tiers, and at 11/4 represents better-than-market value if Javelot underperforms on the AW surface — Sean Levey is a quality booking and the SR is only 3 points off the favourite.
Full result
Winner: Javelot (GB) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Javelot Fox #1 1/1
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2
Peaberry Fox #2 3/1
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3
L B Double U 6/1
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4
April's Luck 100/1
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5
Maliqui Fox #3 10/3
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6
Backmeifyoucan 25/1
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7
Chaise Longue 33/1
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8
Dark Detective 50/1
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9
Arlecchino's Moon 80/1
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10
Without Fail 50/1
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11
Brazilian Blitz 150/1
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12
Spes Durat Avorum 150/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Javelot 11/10 SP 1/1F 🏆 WON
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2
Peaberry 11/4 🥈 2ND
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3
Maliqui 10/3 5TH