← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Nxt Big Thing Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Diamond New Bay
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 SP 11/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Diamond New Bay (SR:154, 9/4) is the clear ability standout in this field — her SR of 154 is 10 points clear of second-best Ma Blushin Rosie (SR:144) and 19 points clear of Sayidah Bahra (SR:145). Dropping a class tier (ClassMv:↓1) into a Class 4 novice with a K.R. Burke yard running at 19% career strike rate and Sam James aboard (14%) is a potent combination. The 6% market drift is the one concern, but in a novice with only 7 runners and two maidens holding higher SRs than any experienced rival, the drift is likely tactical or ante-post repositioning rather than stable intelligence against her. Her single run finishing 4th as a debut gives her a meaningful form line over the two unraced rivals in the shortlist, and the class drop makes her the most credible winner on the data. Each-way alternative: Ma Blushin Rosie. Main danger: Ma Blushin Rosie — Ma Blushin Rosie (SR:144, 11/1) is unraced but has steamed 12% in the market — the strongest inbound move in the field — suggesting stable confidence from Adrian Keatley's yard (17% strike rate), and an SR of 144 makes her the second-best-rated runner if she delivers on debut.
Full result
Winner: Diamond New Bay (IRE) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Diamond New Bay Fox #1 9/2
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2
Guadalevin 8/13
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3
Ma Blushin Rosie Fox #2 7/2
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4
Sayidah Bahra Fox #3 28/1
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5
Sara's Silver Girl 40/1
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6
Angelic Melody 40/1
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7
Oh So Slow Sloth 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3