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North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Big Apple Jack
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Big Apple Jack (SR 64, 9/4) leads the field on ability and is the clear beneficiary of a massive 23% market move in — the strongest market signal by far in this nine-runner Class 6 field. Carrying 9-9, he holds a weight advantage over top-weight Stoneywell (9-12, SR 38) and has a consistent form line of 2-8-4-2-5-4 showing he competes at this level. The GoingFit:- is a concern on good ground, but his trainer Easterby (9% strike rate, large sample) and jockey Garritty (9%) are a workmanlike pairing, and the money flooding in at 9/4 suggests connections are confident despite the going concern. At this class level, his SR of 64 is comfortably the highest in the field and the market is backing that edge emphatically. Each-way alternative: Hey Havana. Main danger: Hey Havana — Hey Havana (SR 68, 5/2) is actually the SR leader at 68 — marginally above Big Apple Jack — carries a light 9-5, has moderate going and distance fit (GoingFit:~, DistFit:~), and a consistent placed form line of -25252; though drifting 8%, Connor Beasley is a 14% strike-rate jockey and the horse's consistency makes it the most likely alternative winner.
Full result
Winner: Supreme Dancer (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Supreme Dancer Fox #3 7/2
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2
Big Apple Jack Fox #1 2/1
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3
Our Nicola 33/1
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4
Hey Havana Fox #2 9/4
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5
Uniter 9/1
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6
Stoneywell 20/1
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7
Agric Ranger 50/1
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8
Danrana 10/1
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9
Tago Mago 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3