← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)
Mr Fox’s call
Constitution River
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Constitution River (SR 137, 6/4) is the most credible challenger to the favourite on pure ability and connections signals. Ryan Moore, the yard's number-one jockey booking at 27% career strike rate, is the clearest indicator that O'Brien considers this their #1 runner over Hawk Mountain (headgear, drifting 26%) and Action (200/1, drifting 50%). The 11-111 form string is a consistent winning sequence, and the market has shortened 9% from opening, confirming stable confidence. While Ombudsman (SR 143) leads the field on Saturday Rating, its 7% drift from 11/10 is a genuine concern in a small Group 1 field where market intelligence is sharp — the Gosden yard's second string Devil's Advocate (SR 83, 200/1) is clearly the pacemaker rather than a live contender, which explains the yard's resource allocation, but Ombudsman's drift with Buick aboard in a race he should dominate is a flag that warrants rating Constitution River's momentum-based case above it at the current prices. Each-way alternative: Item. Main danger: Ombudsman — Ombudsman holds a 6-point SR advantage (143 vs 137), an unbeaten run of 12-111, confirmed DistFit and GoingFit positives at York, and William Buick in the saddle — the drift to 11/10 may simply reflect market profit-taking on a short-priced favourite rather than any genuine negative intelligence, and on ratings alone it remains the most likely winner.
Full result
Winner: Item at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Item Fox #3 SP 10/1
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2
Almaqam Fox #4 18/1
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3
Constitution River Fox #1 6/4
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4
Ombudsman Fox #2 11/10
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5
Zaydann 28/1
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6
Hawk Mountain 20/1
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7
Devil's Advocate 200/1
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8
Action 200/1
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Pride Of Arras 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4