← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Mr Fox’s call
Black Star Boy
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/1 Est. 18%
Mr Fox says
Black Star Boy (SR:88, 11/1, Wgt:8-13) is the standout on multiple converging signals. The 28% market steam is the single loudest money signal in the entire field — from 11/1 into a price that implies real confidence — and it is backed by a DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmation that this horse handles today's exact conditions. The tongue-tie (HG:t) first-time application adds a yard-side intervention suggesting connections expect a performance step forward, and the 61-day freshener off a mark only +4lb higher than his last win keeps the handicapper manageable. Ed Walker at 15% career strike rate with a big-race booking in Kieran Shoemark adds further professional weight to the case, and at 8-13 he is the joint-lightest competitive runner in a race where weight matters on good ground over 5f. Each-way alternative: Schrodinger's Cat. Main danger: Shes Got A Brother — Shes Got A Brother (SR:85, 11/1) has shortened 24% in the market, carries only 8-5, and holds both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — the lightest weight among the confirmed course-and-going proven runners, which is a real handicapping asset in a competitive 19-runner sprint.
Full result
Winner: Miss Yechance (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Miss Yechance 15/2
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2
Manatee Mehmas 8/1
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3
Naana's Shadow Fox #2 9/2
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4
Baker Blue 16/1
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5
Old Is Gold 11/1
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6
Schrodinger's Cat Fox #3 7/1
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7
Poatan 10/1
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8
Stargazed 22/1
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9
Dolos Dream 16/1
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10
Shes Got A Brother Fox #4 10/1
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11
Mighty Magnus 40/1
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12
Black Star Boy Fox #1 10/1
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13
Call Margot 33/1
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14
Underwriter 16/1
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15
Boston Dan 100/1
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16
One And Gone 66/1
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17
Zain Primus 10/1
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18
Revival Power 28/1
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19
Tricky Tel 28/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Black Star Boy 11/1 12TH
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2
Naana's Shadow 9/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Schrodinger's Cat 13/2 6TH
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4
Shes Got A Brother 11/1 10TH