← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Trusted Betting Site Reviews Gambling.com Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Queen's Hame
SPECULATIVE Advised 8/15 Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Queen's Hame (SR 86, 8/15) is an unusual case where the market is overwhelmingly confident despite a modest SR — but the context explains it. This is a novice for fillies in bands B, C and D, meaning the SR system's scale is compressed; the SR leader here is Navertity at 149 but that figure almost certainly reflects a single run and is not necessarily reliable calibration. Queen's Hame is trained by William Haggas (21% strike rate, 1,078 runners — one of the strongest yards in Britain) and ridden by Cieren Fallon (20% strike rate, 836 runners). The 2-1 form line (placed then won last time) on a filly stepping up in class from a yard that rarely runs without intent makes this the logical selection; Haggas doesn't pitch horses at Class 4 novices at 8/15 without strong belief they will win. The market has priced out all serious opposition, and no rival has a trainer or jockey combination remotely comparable. Each-way alternative: Navertity. Main danger: Navertity — Navertity (SR 149) has steamed in 17% in the market to 6/1, Jason Hart rides (14% strike rate), and if the SR reflects genuine ability from her sole run, she could be well above this company despite a long 79-day absence.
Full result
Winner: Star Of Commala (IRE) at SP 85/40. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Star Of Commala Fox #3 5/2
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2
Queen's Hame Fox #1 4/7
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3
Roccapina 25/1
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4
Miss Veronika 66/1
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5
Suntino Lady 25/1
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6
Janora 28/1
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7
Navertity Fox #2 7/1
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8
Mystic Wave 250/1
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9
Bowie Lass 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3