← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Elpeeare
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Elpeeare (SR:152, 4/1) leads the experienced runners on ability alongside Zephyra (SR:153) and, crucially, carries the same weight (9-2) as every other runner — so the SR edge is not offset by a weight penalty. The 29% market drift is a concern worth noting, but in a field dominated by debutantes and weak form lines, two runs of competitive experience (form:34) at this trip provides a meaningful edge over Minkaas whose SR:91 is strikingly low despite the 11/10 market support — that support is almost certainly based on stable whispers rather than demonstrated ability. George Scott runs at a solid 18% strike rate from 468 runners, and the step up in class (↑1) is the only real reservation. Zephyra (SR:153) is the closest threat but carries a less experienced jockey (Gilligan, 8% strike rate) and only one career run, making Elpeeare the more reliable choice under pressure. Each-way alternative: Zephyra. Main danger: Zephyra — Zephyra carries the highest SR in the field (153), already showed enough on debut to place at this course (Course:W0P1), and a step up in class is the only obstacle — if that is within her range, she wins.
Full result
Winner: Minkaas (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Minkaas 10/11
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2
Zephyra Fox #2 3/1
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3
Elpeeare Fox #1 4/1
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4
Plastic Dream 18/1
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5
Scoot Away 12/1
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—
Grey Tamam Fox #3 9/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3