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Van Buck 50th Anniversary Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Highland Girl
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Highland Girl (SR 152, 13/2) has been dramatically backed from a much longer price — shortening 41% in the market — which is the most significant single signal in this field and suggests stable confidence after a debut run coded '0' that clearly showed more than the bare result. At 9-2 she carries 4lb less than favourite Missouri Waltz (SR 157, 9-6) and that weight edge is meaningful on a track like Newmarket July where every pound counts over a mile. The Charlie Johnston yard runs at 13% career strike rate with Rob Hornby, a composed Newmarket specialist, in the saddle. The class drop of one tier (↓1) places her in a more favourable contest than her debut, and the market is firmly telling us connections are bullish. Each-way alternative: Mandolin Rain. Main danger: Missouri Waltz — Missouri Waltz holds the highest SR in the field at 157 and her debut win gives her a concrete form line that the steamer Highland Girl cannot yet match — if the class rise is handled, her raw ability could prove decisive.
Full result
Winner: Tie A Navyribbon (GB) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Tie A Navyribbon Fox #4 9/4
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2
Missouri Waltz Fox #2 13/8
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3
Highland Girl Fox #1 7/1
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4
Mandolin Rain Fox #3 6/1
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5
Voyager One 18/1
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6
Veloria 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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