Racing Tv Club Day Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

Mr Fox’s call

Fine Thing

SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 SP 9/4 Est. 55%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Fine Thing (SR 160) holds a 19-point SR advantage over Porcupine Bank (SR 141), which is a substantial ability gap on the Saturday Rating scale. Crucially, Fine Thing also carries 8lb less weight (11-0 vs 11-8), meaning the SR edge is compounded rather than neutralised by the weights — a SR-160 horse at 11-0 is a very different proposition to one carrying top-weight. Dan and Harry Skelton are a formidable combination (21% and 27% career strike rates respectively), and Fine Thing's last run shows a '1' — a win — stepping into the same class as today (ClassMv:=), confirming current fitness and appropriate grade. Porcupine Bank's 2/5 favouritism is puzzling given the raw ability deficit and weight disadvantage; the market may be over-weighting Gordon Elliott's name or the horse's freshness (23 days vs 36). Each-way alternative: Fine Thing. Main danger: Porcupine Bank — Porcupine Bank is trained by Gordon Elliott with Sean Bowen in the saddle — a potent combination — and at 4 years old may be a rapidly progressive type whose true ability is not yet fully reflected in its SR of 141, particularly if the three-tier class drop signals Elliott is targeting an easy win with a horse he rates highly at home.