← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Affinity Rock
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Affinity Rock (SR:128, 2/1) is the class standout in this field by a clear margin — 16 SR points clear of second-best Where's My Jet and 18 clear of Lemmy Caution — and carries a favourable 11-5, 7lb lighter than every rival at 11-12, a meaningful edge in a beginners' chase over 2m7f on good ground. The form line /10-22 shows consistency at chase level with two recent placed efforts confirming current fitness and jumping competence; a beginners' chase at Killarney is the right opportunity to convert. The 5% market drift is modest and explainable given the 91-day absence, but the SR advantage and weight relief outweigh that concern. Cian Collins (7% trainer SR) is a smaller yard but Danny Gilligan (10%, 448 career runs) is a competent booking for the task. Each-way alternative: Fort Dino. Main danger: Fort Dino — Fort Dino (SR:92, 7/1) has been dramatically steamed 33% in the market — the strongest market move in the race — and Henry De Bromhead (14% strike rate, 1044 runners) is a serious operator who does not steam a horse 33% by accident; despite the 112-day absence and modest SR, market confidence of this magnitude on a young 5-year-old in a beginners' chase demands respect.
Full result
Winner: Ballystone (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ballystone Fox #4 9/2
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2
Fort Dino Fox #2 7/2
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3
Affinity Rock Fox #1 13/8
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4
Lemmy Caution Fox #3 3/1
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5
Themanintheanorak 14/1
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—
Happy Me 66/1
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Heroes Rise 14/1
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Where's My Jet 3/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Affinity Rock 2/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Fort Dino 7/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Lemmy Caution 9/2 🏁 4TH
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4
Ballystone 11/2 SP 4/1 🏆 WON