← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ascona Ladies Fuelled By Fashion Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Liosa
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Liosa (SR:79, 4/1) is the highest-rated runner in this six-horse Class 5 sprint and carries a light 9-6, giving her a 11lb weight advantage over top-weight Sixtygeesbaby. The 23% market move inward is the most significant positive market signal in the field and demands respect — money has come for a reason. Her recent form (0-4613, right-to-left: last run was a 3rd) shows improvement on her latest outing, and the same-class placement (ClassMv:=) means she is not stepping into unknown territory. The distance fitness is moderate (DistFit:~) and going fitness unknown (GoingFit:?), but at 4/1 with clear SR superiority and the strongest market move, the balance of evidence points firmly her way. Each-way alternative: Safari Dream. Main danger: Safari Dream — Safari Dream (SR:77, 5/1) has a course record of W1P1 at Ffos Las and proven distance fitness (DistFit:+) on confirmed good going (GoingFit:+), giving her a stronger course-and-distance profile than Liosa despite the 20% drift, which may simply reflect market money flowing to Liosa rather than any genuine concern about the horse.
Full result
Winner: Safari Dream (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Safari Dream Fox #2 4/1
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2
Army Bugler 25/1
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3
Sixtygeesbaby 5/4
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4
Pull The Rug 13/2
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5
Liosa Fox #1 9/2
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6
Alkuwarrior Fox #3 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Liosa 4/1 5TH
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2
Safari Dream 5/1 SP 100/30 🏆 WON
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3
Alkuwarrior 14/1 6TH