← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Racing Welfare Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Beguiled
MEDIUM Advised 4/7 SP 1/3F Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Beguiled (SR 158, 4/7) is the clear class leader in this field, rated 6 points above the next-best Jessica (SR 152) and commanding a 17-point advantage over the unraced maiden Show Me Glory and Woollahra. The John & Thady Gosden yard operates at a 24% strike rate from 766 runners — one of the shrewdest operations in British racing — and Billy Loughnane at 19% on 1,761 rides is in excellent nick. Crucially, Beguiled is stepping DOWN a class (ClassMv:↓1), which in a fillies' novice over 7f at Newmarket July should translate to a straightforward exercise, and the market has tightened a further 5% since opening, confirming stable confidence. The sole concern is a single run showing a third-place finish, but in the context of dropping in class against predominantly unraced rivals, that experience advantage is decisive. Each-way alternative: Jessica. Main danger: Jessica — Jessica (SR 152, 11/2) has steamed in 35% from opening — by far the most dramatic market move in the field — suggesting Kevin Philippart De Foy's yard holds this filly in high regard, and at 11/2 she represents the only realistic SR-backed threat to Beguiled.
Full result
Winner: Beguiled (GB) at SP 1/3F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Beguiled Fox #1 4/7
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2
Jessica Fox #2 11/2
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3
Show Me Glory 11/1
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4
Woollahra 12/1
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5
Zirconic 22/1
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6
Late Night Show Fox #3 15/2
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7
Give Me A Bow 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3