Robert Gilbert Birthday Celebration Irish EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

17:57 Salisbury Fri 21 Aug 2026 0m6f0y Class 5 Good to Firm 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Thanks Harry

SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 32%

7TH

Mr Fox says

Thanks Harry (SR:149, 7/2) carries the joint-highest SR in the field alongside the most credible market price, and his rating edges Chan Noir (SR:148) while sitting 5lb lighter than the equivalent comparison would suggest at 9-7 versus Chan Noir's identical weight — though the decisive factor is jockey and stable context. Tom Dascombe runs a 12% yard and the form string '72' shows a competitive second on the back of a wide run, a clear step forward from debut. Chan Noir (SR:148, 6/1) is the closest SR rival but has drifted 17% in the market, a meaningful signal of market disillusionment, while Thanks Harry holds the top AI star rating at ★★★★☆ which no other shortlisted horse matches. Spirit Of Lyra is the obvious fly in the ointment as a 4/5 favourite, but her SR of just 90 — well below the 120 workmanlike threshold — is alarming for market leadership, and her recent '41' form at the same class provides no evidence she can match horses rated 50-60 points above her. Each-way alternative: Fillipas. Main danger: Chan Noir — Chan Noir carries an SR of 148 — essentially level with Thanks Harry — drops a class, and despite the 17% drift may simply have been backed off-course, with Jane Chapple-Hyam's form record giving him a legitimate each-way chance at 6/1.

Verify· #13546

Full result

Winner: Fillipas (IRE) at SP 14/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.