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Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)
Mr Fox’s call
Mount Atlas
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Mount Atlas (SR:120, 6/1) is the highest-rated runner in the field and carries the same weight as most rivals at 9-5, giving no penalty disadvantage. His form string 4-2231 shows a last-time-out win and a consistent sequence of placed efforts, and he brings confirmed course form of W1P2 at York — a specialist-track advantage that matters on this demanding 2m circuit. The market has moved significantly in his favour (Mkt:in27%), suggesting informed money is behind him, and trainer Andrew Balding (19% strike rate, 1464 runners) is a reliable handler at this level. Caballo De Mar's SR:117 is inferior and his MarkMv:+22 is a substantial concern — he's running off a mark 22lb higher than his last win, which is a huge ask at Group 2 level. Each-way alternative: Illinois. Main danger: Illinois — Illinois (SR:113, 6/1) has steamed in 36% in the market — the biggest move in the race — is off a mark 3lb below his last win (MarkMv:-3), has Ryan Moore booked at 27% career strike rate, and his form 36155 shows a recent win and consistent improvement that the market is clearly taking seriously.
Full result
Winner: Al Nayyir (GB) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Al Nayyir Fox #4 15/2
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2
Illinois Fox #2 13/2
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3
Mount Atlas Fox #1 7/1
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4
Caballo De Mar Fox #3 13/8
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5
Quickthorn 33/1
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6
French Master 18/1
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7
Amiloc 4/1
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8
Columbus 11/1
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Carmers -
Top 4 — how each finished
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4