← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Seaxburh
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 3/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Seaxburh (SR 85, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field and the only runner with a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good ground, a meaningful edge in a nursery where ground suitability separates horses at this level. The form string 56223 shows consistent improvement through five starts, arriving here just 19 days ago in good order. While drifting 14% in the market, the O'Brien yard's #1 runner signals are pointing elsewhere (Belicoso carries DBM, the more senior jockey booking), but Seaxburh's SR advantage of 3 points over the next-best rival, combined with a 4lb weight concession versus Belicoso and proven good-ground form, makes the drift exploitable rather than alarming. Declan McDonogh knows the horse's needs after recent runs. Each-way alternative: Maggie Walker. Main danger: Belicoso — Belicoso (SR 82, 5/2) carries the yard's senior jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle, has shortened 7% in the market making it the O'Brien stable's market-implied #1, and despite the GoingFit:- flag remains only 3 points behind Seaxburh on SR while receiving clear connections confidence.
Full result
Winner: Seaxburh (IRE) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Seaxburh Fox #1 11/4
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2
Maggie Walker Fox #3 9/2
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3
Old Joanie 14/1
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4
Fine Line 9/1
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5
Belicoso Fox #2 7/4
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6
Razmataz 14/1
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—
Margot Mae Fox #4 SP
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—
Elyatta 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Seaxburh 9/2 SP 3/1 🏆 WON
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2
Belicoso 5/2 5TH
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3
Maggie Walker 6/1 🥈 2ND
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4
Margot Mae 11/4